Tag: Pandemic

• WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED IN 2020?

  November in Italy is the “Panettone” time of the year, rain falling on passengers walking by Fontana di Trevi and Duomo Milano and preparing the big Christmas trees in the main squares. Going a bit to North and across the Alpes and towards Germany, Christmas markets already must have been flooding the narrow and rainy streets. But 2020 brought us a brand new version of life that we had never experienced before: stay home, wear a mask and watch the President of the United States calling the US elections a Fraud. By the way, they are recounting!

  

  Whatever these odd events led to, with the discovery (invention, development, you call it) of the Covid19 Vaccine, the tensions have been relieved and concerns have been lessened quite a lot. Let’s not forget that in the spring, we were somehow told that there is a chance that there will never be a vaccine. Some expected that it would not be possible to get the shots until 2022, and they estimated millions and millions of deaths across the globe. After having lost almost two millions of lives until January, the first official calls will have been announced for vaccinations in the EU, and maybe even before that in the US and the UK. Now we have a reason to be relieved: the elderly, medical staff and vulnerable individuals will be vaccinated up to a certain extent and the restrictions will start to lift. Life without a mask, what a pleasure that we did not adore and appreciate enough.

  If we used to deem WWII as the latest global crisis, Covid19 might have replaced it for the upcoming decades, until global warming or an environmental crisis rings the bell. However and as well as Covid, I would take it as an exogenous crisis that we will solve by using technology and science. Before that, we have to remember that we still are not sure about the role of humans in the acceleration of warming. We were already at the end of the ice age. Humans activities such as carbon emissions might have marginally expanded the crisis but has not caused it. Amplification is not the same as causing. It is hence important to stop blaming ourselves and mass production of goods. Without them, we would be still living our probably miserable medieval lives.

  In the end, as a minimal member of the academic community, I would like to urge everyone to participate in the problem-solving stage of the next crisis. Still, scientists are not meant to be magicians. They shall not be left alone to solve our troubles with these exogenous shocks that hit our lives once every couple of decades. A very small step will be my paper, which I expect to publish online at the beginning of the next summer. Until then, stay tuned on my blog. I have promised myself that I must write more.

  2020.11.12

• Covid19 – Why should not we panic?

  All of us are experiencing what will be remembered for the next generations as CoronaVirus epidemic disease. More precisely, we have no idea at this moment on how the virus is going to evolve over time. What we are almost certain about is its effects on our economy in short-medium term. What we can forecast is the effects on people and their networks in long-term. Here, I will present some very preliminary comments on different aspects of this crisis that people have to deal with.

  

  Supermarkets: The economy works differently than most people think. Our economies are based on a competitive market and some regulations to protect the property rights. But why cannot this huge system of theories, technology and regulations provide you with toilet paper these days? Again, like most of the economists I have to mention the classic terms of demand and supply. In short-run, demand is more elastic than supply. It means that it is easier for 1 family to buy 100 more toilet paper rolls than for 100 families to produce 1 more roll. For increasing the manufacturing level, you need machines, labour, transportation and most importantly time to combine these inputs. In short-term, the stock of super markets and firms runs out of toilet paper, because millions of people are going to increase their demand to be able to stock dozens of rolls in their homes! It should not be surprising that maybe for one to two weeks, you have to use a sort of substitute good for toilet paper. We economists just like other people, also need these products. Trying to compromise the shortages of our economy does not pay our bills, but it helps us to comprehend the situation of the real world, where things are different than people’s ideal world. On the other hand, when the pandemic situation ends, we will probably have better supply chain among the supermarkets, using Artificial Intelligence for matching the needs of the customers and the availability of the stock capacity. You will also be able to download more efficient applications to order products from your local suppliers.

  Culture and Networks: I assume CoronaVirus will make hygienic products more profitable, leading to a long-time increase in the production of hand sanitizing gels for isntance. This increase will lead to a significant decrease in the price of such products. The awareness we gain regarding our health and hygiene, can be one of the very few advantages we can get during this crisis. Public places, like restaurants, bars and clubs will be under pressure to increase the standards in their environment. There will be worries about the seasonal flu for some years, leading to a greater loss of schooling/working hours in the upcoming cold seasons. Elderly will receive less visits around Christmas and new years’s eve, which can be sort of appreciated also for some of the youth!

  Do I have to panic when I cough hard or have unusual fever? Sorry to say, if you live in the Northern Hemisphere and you have problems with your respiratory system and you are more than 80, maybe yes you should. Stay in home and follow the instructions of your local government for treatment. CoronaVirus does not threaten you if you take it seriously (No Panic though). Scientists are working hard in research laboratories around the globe to produce the vaccination and effective medicine. You will never be hurt if you trust scientific procedure! Just stay at home and protect yourself until the medicine will be in all the pharmacies!

  2020.03.17