Tag: finance

  • Free lunch does not exist.

    What is exactly the problem of universal health care systems? Why cannot economies maintain free health care for consecutive generations without struggling too much?

    To the non-economist audience, it might sound reasonable for every country to execute and maintain a sustainable system that manages pensions, healthcare and other welfare payments uniquely and in one account, under ethical and practical standards that match their financing plans perfectly. Politicians bring this matter up during the debates before all the elections and according to the stage the country is in, voters decide whether the health care system must be empowered or weakened. But why a heavenly, ethical and sustainable public healthcare system does not exist for every country? In this article, I will try to avoid technical matters and focus on the outcomes of studies on the issue. In the first paragraph, I will attempt to go over some very basic economics, as known as Econ 101 and then, I will discuss the issue.

    Specifically, we must consider the feasibility of welfare in every country. Well, some nations are wealthy, and some are not. Among wealthier nations, some of them are even wealthier and by some standards, they are getting more and more prosperous. To understand what I mean by wealth and being wealthy and getting wealthier, think of a simple quantified amount of wealth that each citizen holds. This wealth includes his/her financial assets, future income flows, savings, real estate and even knowledge. Taking an average of this value in dollars will easily help us rule out countries like China, India and Russia from wealthy countries and focus on the countries that have higher levels of what we refer to as “wealth per capita”. Without demonstrating many technical issues, the statistics of wealth show that a Chinese individual is not wealthier than an Eastern European citizen, of course on average.

    Average Wealth (per Capita), source: Wikipedia

    These wealthy nations in Western Europe, North America, Eastern Asia and Oceania are not easily capable of increasing welfare using a high marginal propensity of consumption rate. Instead, their idea has been to increase the number of years that each citizen lives. In simple words, people are getting enough from their normal life and giving them more does not satisfy them enough. Therefore, the allocation of the market tells the policymaker that it is tangible to invest in the length of life, rather than increasing welfare by increasing consumption at any point in time.

    To conclude the previous paragraph that provided a simple overview, I refer back to the word feasibility: is the nation that is discussing a free healthcare system for everyone, “wealthy enough” to do so? I doubt that many nations are at this stage. Maybe few Northern European economies were capable of maintaining such healthcare systems for decades, but even in those countries, the natural ageing tendency of the society and higher life expectancy has brought an end to the infinite willingness to give everything to everyone for a relatively cheap price. Reconsiderations have started, and charging people for what they get is the most reasonable answer, just like the banana market. Pay 1 unit and get 1 banana, pay 2 and get two. In such markets, there are offers to receive more than you pay, when you pay more than average. Take the case of private retirement investment portfolios that insurance companies and banks offer to their clients.

    Rather than feasibility, there is philosophical reasoning behind a private healthcare system, and it raises from a sort of moral hazard. Imagine healthy people start paying very high taxes for people that consume cigarettes or alcohol on a daily basis. What I mean is a public healthcare system, in which there is an annual fee paid as taxes or fees, and everyone pays the same amount! You may want to point out to almost every country that subsidizes negatively the consumer of smoking products by additional taxes. Simple algebra shows that the average amount a smoker pays through taxes does not cover the costs of one case of lung cancer in a public hospital.

    Furthermore, some may mention that health is not an economic good that we shall consider like an ordinary product and therefore, the nature and characteristics of such “ethical” market must be different. So what is an economic good? Why isn’t lime or avocado subsidised to become available for the poorer classes in the society? This logic is misleading and calls for free education in universities, subsidised public transportation, subsidised fuel markets and at the end of the day, subsidises having children because it is “nice” and “ethical” to have children. This system is inefficient, works against its own standards by penalising citizens for every action in their daily lives and ends up in an inflationary economy that might even face a permanent stagnation.

    Eventually, we have to think of COVID crisis as a heavy shock that hit our economies. The world will not be the same, welfare will decrease for some time and we have to pay for what we have not initiated, and it is far from being fair. The problem is there does not seem to be any other solution for such hard times. Calls for increasing public expenditures are nonsense and even dangerous. Take a look at the public debt crisis in Southern Europe and you will see what a true long-term disaster it can become.

  • How to Bounce the Economy Back

    The current crisis will end soon, as well as other recessions throughout history that ended after a relatively short period. Despite the fact that some markets, most importantly, the labour market will remain affected for a longer period of time, a rational set of policies shall help the economy back in its previous setting. Our reaction towards the two great slumps we have experienced in the last 100 years were quite different, and both were approximately effective in short-term. During the 1930 depression, the governments increased their expenditure and caused debt. This fiscal policy led to bigger governments (obese governments), where the government became a new and active agent in macoeconomic-scale. The response during the Great Recession, starting in 2007 and lasting until 2009 was wholly different. This time, the Central Banks intervened in the money market and operated via asset management. Quantitative and Qualitative Easing policies commenced and the financial markets moved sluggishly back to their long-run growth. The Corona outbreak is entirely different, in all of its aspects.

    The most significant difference of this recession is that it is fully exogenous. No one could predict such pandemic back in December 2019. It almost has no economic or financial background. Either way the authorities, whether in monetary or fiscal sector are expected to intervene in the economy as soon as possible. Our toolbox of theory and policy sets did not contain any solution to such an exogenous force attacking the markets. Hence the governments started to increase their spending in the health sector. It could include setting up new and emergency clinics, importing medicine or granting funds to research centres to speed up the procedure of vaccine and medicine production. The second reaction was to transfer cash flows to enterprises, families and people who are directly affected by the virus or the quarantine time. France provided the sick leave, China spent billions of Yuans to support the businesses and Italy is helping the individuals by direct payment. But these sources are not infinite, and if the outbreak lasts until summer, some countries may adopt printing money policy and transfer the crisis to long-term, but deeper and more difficult to solve.

    Coronavirus: Global shares suffer worst week since financial ...
    Almost all the financial markets were affected significantly in the last month

    When the epidemic virus settles and we can go back to work, the suppressed demand will be the initial force to boost the economy. Many households are already planning long vacations in or out of their countries. On the supply side of the story, the European Central Bank might plan to issue Corona bonds to finance its intervention in the monetary sector in a longer window of time. Perhaps asset management actions to help the European enterprises will be effective again. We should remember: the rates of unemployment were at their lowest levels in decades, financial markets were performing well for a long period of time. The economy will revive and be growing again. The question that governments and central banks are pursuing right now is if there is a low-cost shortcut to lessen the time of moving back to our previous position.