Job Market Paper
Firms’ Investments & Capacity Utilisation
(With Giulia Piccillo and Tania Treibich). CESifo Working Paper No.12108
Abstract: Information on capacity utilisation is central to studying firms’ investment behaviour. We draw a framework where firms at high capacity utilisation need to invest in order to maintain their capacity buffer to cope with future shocks. We then test the relationship between firms’ deviation from this “target” and their investments by considering the role of uncertainty and financial constraints by applying an instrumental variable model to the firms present in the INVIND survey of the Bank of Italy for 2002-2023. Our findings show that the Italian firms with high growth potential or at the growth window invest in their production capacity. Importantly, we find that higher uncertainty does not affect the investments of firms operating at high capacity utilisation but increases the investment of those at low capacity utilisation. This result from our work hints at a novel inefficiency role for uncertainty through its heterogeneous impact on firms based on their capacity utilisation.
Working Papers
Uncertainty and Investments in Data and R&D
(With Maria Savona). CESifo Working Paper No.12230
Abstract: This paper investigates whether investments in data affect firms’ R&D and whether the two are productivity-enhancing complements. We conceptualise and test whether investments in data reduce market uncertainty, thereby mitigating the inherent uncertainty of R&D and enhancing research and innovation investment. Using Italian firm-level data from 2002 to 2024 and exploiting the GDPR as an instrument, we identify a positive causal effect of data on R&D investment. Moreover, we find that data and R&D are complementary in enhancing both short- and long-term productivity. Our analyses also identify a positive role of R&D for productivity only when firms are data-intensive.
Unpacking Economic Uncertainty: Measuring the Firm, Sector and Aggregate Components
(With Giulia Piccillo and Tania Treibich). CESifo Working Paper No.10974
Abstract: We introduce a novel method for measuring economic uncertainty at the firm, sector, and aggregate levels using sales volatility and validate it by comparison with existing macroeconomic uncertainty measures. We use firm-level data from Compustat from 1990-2024 to construct our uncertainty measures for the U.S. economy. Our findings highlight that i) macroeconomic conditions are the predominant source of firms’ uncertainty, ii) diverse firm traits yield notable heterogeneity, and iii) the mining sector exhibits the highest level of uncertainty. Our findings shed light on the importance of firm and sectoral heterogeneity in studying uncertainty and its effects on economic activity.
Work in Progress
What makes an ageing variable? (With Andrew Scott and Julian Ashwin).
Endogenous Government Expenditure in an Electoral System
The Price of Playing Fair: An Analysis of Football Players’ Value after FFP Regulation
Conferences & Seminars
2025
Global Intan-Prod Conference, Rome, Italy
ENTeG, Milan, Italy
2024
MILE Seminar, Maastricht, the Netherlands
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference, Belfast, the United Kingdom
ECO-SOS Workshop on Industrial and Public Economics, WIPE, Reus, Spain – February
LUISS Guido Carli Internal Seminars, Department of Economics and Finance, Rome, Italy – February
2023
The Dutch Economists annual gathering, the Hague, the Netherlands – October
MORSE Workshop, Maastricht, the Netherlands – October
Rome PhD Workshop (2nd Edition), University of Rome Tor Vergata – September
The Society for Computational Economics Conference (CEF), Nice, France – July
The Royal Dutch Economic Society (KVS) New Paper Sessions, the Hague, the Netherlands – June
Annual Junior Researchers Meetings, LUISS Guido Carli, Rome, Italy – May
2022
Rome PhD Conference, Held jointly by LUISS, EIEF and Tor Vergata University, Rome, Italy – September
Maastricht University Internal Seminars, Department of Macro, International and Labour Economics, Maastricht, the Netherlands – May
Applied Theory, Macro and Empirical Finance (AMEF), University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, Greece – April
LUISS Guido Carli Internal Seminars, Department of Economics and Finance, Rome, Italy – March
Siavash Mohades 